Is Israel on the brink?
We are entering THE most challenging period for Israel in many years.
The veneer of civilization is thin, at best. While Israel is enjoying unprecedented growth; and acceptance in the Middle east, dark clouds are forming. Those clouds all point to Iran.
There is a giant uptick in Palestinian attacks on Israel. Islamic Jihad was the beginning. Now we are seeing attacks on farmers, attempted terror attacks, and multiple cells in Jenin planning mass casualty events. This is no accident.
Hamas leaders have been traveling to Russia recently. Israel has “allegedly” been bombing Hezbollah/Iran missile depots, warehouses,and military targets across Syria. Russia has enabled Iran to grow its military presence and “surround” Israel. Why is there more tension on the northern border?
Lebanon (declared war on Israel in 1948 has never canceled it) and has technically been at war ever since.
Israel has built the Leviathan gas fields west of the Tamar fields off the shore of Israel. Lebanon has claimed ownership of the oil fields. There have been ongoing negotiations with Lebanon over the maritime economic borders for quite some time. It appears that Israel and Lebanon are close to agreeing on the terms. Hezbollah, the Iran proxy in Lebanon, has threatened Israel,sending drones to the arish oil field that Israel shot down. They are in a lose, lose position themselves. Lebanon is in desperate economic shape. Suppose there is an agreement Hezbollah will not readily sign on to it. Iran has positioned Hezbollah as the “moral” leader in the Islamic world. Therein lies the problem. Lebanon will benefit significantly from this deal with Israel which is why Hezbollah will not support it. Signing an agreement gives Israel de facto recognition and diminishes Hezbollah’s standing as the leader of the “resistance” against the zionists.
fieldshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_gas_field
It makes good sense for Israel to make a deal with Lebanon. Their economy is in complete chaos and is on the edge of being a failed state or, worse, a Shia Hezbollah state. Sharing the income with their neighbor is smart.
All dark clouds point to Iran.
President Biden is bringing the JCPOA ( the Iran deal) back from the dead and is at the center of the coming conflagration.
I believe there will be no deal with Iran until AFTER the midterms. Any agreement with Iran would go through Russia and China, which would not exactly be very popular politically.
Biden will again bypass Congress and sign a deal without a vote.
The old deal was criminally bereft of compliance and common sense. Any intelligent reading of the agreement shows that it was a path to Iran becoming a nuclear power, not preventing it.
The funniest thing I hear from those who supported it is that Iran never broke the deal. That may be true, but the agreement was so favorable to Iran; why would they break it?
I think Obama wants Iran to become a nuclear power. Read the deal. For example, Iran is given 30 days’ notice about upcoming inspections. That’s enough time to remove evidence.
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There were no provisions for inspectors to view ALL military sites.
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You cannot have an inspection regime if you are not inspecting everything.
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Iran used its billions from the Obama administration to grow its ballistic missile and drone capabilities.
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The Mossad captured an entire warehouse full of documents in Teheran on the Iran nuclear program. They proved that Iran was lying about its intentions all along. Within the past month, Germany reported that Iran was trying to purchase materials for its program.
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The left’s “theory” was that the JCPOA would enhance the so-called moderates in Iran and coax them into the fold of nations. It was nonsense then and nonsense now. There are no moderates in this theocracy. The mullahs are fanatics who continued their world leadership role in terror after receiving the largess from the United States and cynical partners.
The JCPOA (Iran deal) did nothing to stop Iran’s drive to become THE hegemon in the middle east.
Iran controls Yemen ( the Houthis) and Lebanon ( Hezbollah) and is making inroads into Syria and Bahrain. Iran wants the Sunni leadership out.
Israel’s intelligence, elected officials to Prime Minister have all been lobbying the Biden administration not to sign the deal.
Prime Minster Lapid and the head of Mossad have all been screaming that this deal is a disaster.
The Trump administration canceled the JCPOA and put the squeeze on Iran through real sanctions. Iran was in economic chaos until Biden gave them a lifeline.
One wonders why?
The Biden administration is Obama’s third term. Obama was obsessive about the Iran deal. His writings show that he believes the United States was at fault due to the CIA’s support for the SHAH as if that had anything to do with today’s reality.
Any person with a brain knows that Iran is a death cult whose raison de’tre is to spread their Islamic revolution and destroy Israel.
Israel cannot take a chance on this happening. Just one nuclear weapon can cripple Israel and Iran knows that.
Yes, Israel can turn the country of Iran to dust but will they?
The United States and Russia survived the cold war by the doctrine MAD or mutually assured destruction. The reasoning was that both countries feared the destruction of their citizenry through retaliation. It was based on Russia and the United States being rational. The Soviets may have been doctrinaire communists, but they didn’t want to die.
With Iran, you are talking about a country that’s leadership worships martyrdom. Iran had no problem sacrificing millions of its citizens in suicide missions during the Iran, Iraq war. They were nothing more than cannon fodder.
You cannot allow a religious death cult with the possibility of murdering millions of lives acquire nuclear weapons.
I once had the opportunity to listen and speak to Dennis Ross, the middle east negotiator with several administrations about Iran. I was surprised to hear about actual discussions with the Iranians and Palestinians. Carrots and sticks, which Baker of the Reagan/Bush administration used to call it. Former Iran President Rafsanjani was going to get the pistachio distributorship in Iran, for example. Hard to believe but true. Most negotiations come down to self-interest however in this situation, it is a zero-sum game. It is based on a religious considerations not pistachio distributorships.
One side wins, the other loses, and the losers may die.
Unfortunately, Israel will not have the luxury of waiting to see what happens if this deal goes through. The window to destroy the Iran;s program is rapidly being closed.
Mossad has done a remarkable job in creating “accidents” in Iran. High-ranking nuclear scientists and generals have been “unlucky” for several years. Israel is concluding that this is not enough. Action may have to be taken, and there will be war.
If Iran believes that Israel will attack it, you will see all of their proxies “act up.” That is why I think we will see a conflagration sooner than later.
It is time for our community and the world to end this insanity.
Stop the Iran nuclear deal before it is too late.
Larry M Levine
llevine805@gmail.com
